Demand for primary healthcare services in Greece based on general practice prescribing model.

Analyze the demand for general practitioners and estimate trends in the demand for health care services, mostly based on demographic and epidemiological development. We sought to project the cost and volume of prescribing in primary care. We used the data from the National Organization for the Provision of Primary Healthcare Services (EOPYY) to design a model based on the number of prescriptions issued to a patient visit. The prescriptions are grouped by patients' age, sex, place of residence and their diagnostic evaluation. We selected eleven conditions, which are identified by the codes from the International Classification of Diseases. The forecasting model is based on the negative binomial regression. Projections are made for drug expenditure based on data taken from the World Bank and analysis of current utilization trends. We project an increase in drug expenditure in 2021, although it is expected population decline. Older adults use more health services than younger people. It is noted that female have higher medical care service utilization than male. Greeks living in rural areas have less healthcare utilization rates than their urban counterparts.