Description of key macroeconomic variables, including regional GDP and employment for NUTS-2 regions.

This report has been prepared in the framework of PLUREL Work Package 1.1 (Economic Scenarios) by Paris 1 Université - Lab. ERASME. This document presents four medium-term scenarios for the European economy at both national and NUTS-2 levels. These scenarios are based on assumptions on the main economic drivers of the NEMESIS model: demography, world demand and oil price as well as policies on energy and R&D. The NEMESIS economic model provides economic indicators such as economic growth, employment, energy consumption, sectoral dynamics, etc. It is a macro-sectoral econometric model for EU-27 (excluding Cyprus and Bulgaria, including Norway); each country is modelled individually through 30 production sectors (32 in an extended version of the model) and 27 consumption goods. The model also includes a land use sector that computes land claims for agriculture and built areas. The four scenarios developed in this document are distinguished by a contrasted set of assumptions on demography, oil price, world demand, RTD effort and energy/environment regulation. They are called "A1 Hyper-tech", A2 "Extreme water", B1 "Peak oil" and B2 "Fragmentation". Economic results are mainly provided at national scale but more geographically detailed results are produced at NUTS-2 level such as GDP and employment.