Detecting turning points and phases of expansions and recessions of the restaurant industry: Subject to Korean restaurant industry business and its growth cycles

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to detect turning points and phases of expansions and recessions of the Korean restaurant industry. Design/methodology/approach: This study investigated long-term economic trends in the restaurant industry cycle and growth cycle by utilizing yearly data spanning over fifty years covering year 1970 through year 2021. The rules developed by Niemira and Klein (1994) and additional criteria used in the studies of Choi (1999) and Choi (2010) were employed to determine industry cycles. Findings: This study established a restaurant industry growth cycle model and defined turning points and phases of expansions and recessions of the industry and growth cycles during the period 1970-2021. Detailed findings are reported in the article. Research limitations/implications: The results of this study provide a grasp information for policy makers, investors, and industry people both in its practical and academic fields. However, since economic recessions may have a stronger impact on firms and individuals than economic expansions (Yost, Ridderstaat & Kizildag, 2020), follow-up research is required to focus more on recessions in order to get more information. Originality/value: This is the first attempt to examine the long-term cyclical characteristics of the Korean restaurant industry as comprehensively as possible using data covering over 50 years, which marks the contribution of this article.