Determinação dos superávits do governo central brasileiro : influência da política monetária na ótica de regressões de limiar

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels of indebtedness; ii) threshold regressions, which account for the influence of monetary policy in the fiscal stance; and iii) a comparison of the estimates by the means of forecast statistics. The following indications are noteworthy: i) there is a tendency to reduce de surpluses as a proportion of GDP, due to the persistent decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio; ii) the CPI inflation and the interest outlays represent state variables in the determination of the surpluses; and iii) the scenario for fiscal policy depends on how those variables will behave after the cuts in the Selic rate in the recent cycle of monetary expansion. -- primary surpluses ; net public debt ; inflation rate ; interest accruals ; threshold regressions