Determinantes de la elección del régimen cambiario en América Latina: una aproximación a un modelo logit multinomial mixto

The choice of the exchange rate regime is one of the most significant monetary policy decisions that any economic authority has to make nowadays. Indeed, there have been many studies from a theoretical and empirical point of view, but the only common conclusion would be the lack of consensus. In the past this topic has been modeled by binary probit or cross-sectional multinomial logit models, both of which have weaknesses in the assumptions of the choices. In this paper, such issue is faced by means of a panel mixed multinomial logit model, which allows for substitution pattern among the three types of exchange rate regimes: fixed, intermediate, and flexible. Three types of choice determinants are explored: those stated by the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory, types of shocks and vulnerability to currency crises, using a sample of 21 Latin American countries over the period 1980-2004.