Determinantes macroeconómicos de la mortalidad infantil en Uruguay

This article analysis the macroeconomic determinants of the infant mortality rate (IMR) in Uruguay and its components, focusing on the role of the gross product per capita (GDP), public spending (PS) and health spending (HS). A time series analysis is performed using annual data from 1910 to 2004. Previous analysis for uruguay does not address the role of PS and HS. During the period under analysis, there is no evidence of the existence of long-term stable relations. In the short run, GDP variations lose signification to explain the changes in the TMI when controlling for changes in PS (or total expenditure) and the number of per capita medical doctors. The estimated elasticity between TMI and GPS is around -0.12 and the one between TMI and the number of per capita medical doctors per 10,000 inhabitants is around -0,50. In turn, in 1940 and 1980 there were major changes in both technological and public policy in health that were also significant in explaining changes in IMR. The available data support the hypothesis that HS matters to understand the significant decrease in IMR over the past 100 years and that within total expenditure, there are other Ps components other that HS that have also contributed to this decline even to a greater extent. These results suggest that in regard to the decline of IMR, isnot relevant only the generation of resourcesk, but their allocation is also important, particularly the portion intended for the provision of public services, whose impact on IMR can be direct or indirect.