Development of a Structural Hazard Rate Model in Sociological Research

In this article, the author presents and develops a structural hazard rate model that takes into account the interrelationships of covariates and their effects on the hazard rate. In particular, both a full model and a set of sequential reduced-form equations are specified. Whereas the full model estimates only the direct effects of exogenous covariates on the hazard rate, the final reduced-form equation measures their total effects. From two adjacent models, the indirect influences of exogenous variables by means of intervening factors can be estimated and tested. The author also recognizes the prediction power derived from the full model, then uses it to estimate the prediction bias associated with reduced-form equations. Finally, an empirical example is provided to demonstrate this approach in sociological research.