Did PROGRESA send drop-outs back to school?

This paper analyzes the effect of PROGRESA education grants on school enrollment. It looks at its effect on total school enrollment and in particular on school enrollment of drop-outs, i.e. those children who face a re-enrollment decision since they were not enrolled in school the year prior to the implementation of the PROGRESA program. Estimates of the impact of PROGRESA education grants on drop-outs and non-drop-outs are obtained applying difference estimation and maximum likelihood estimation of a reduced form equation for schooling decision. Differences in results between both groups of children are discussed looking at the distribution of marginal effects. PROGRESA did send drop-outs back to school. It had a larger effect on drop-outs than on non-drop-outs. However, for the particular group of girls who dropped out of school just before attending secondary school PROGRESA grants only had a minor effect. This last finding highlights the fact that determinants of the schooling decision are different for young girls and that PROGRESA grants do not provide a strong enough incentive to send them back to school.