Different perspectives on the global development of transport

It may be clear that the future of the transport sector is fraught with uncertainties, as the system can be influenced by many factors that can develop in various ways. The aim of this paper is to get insight into the future development of the transportation sector seen from a world-wide perspective. This is done by applying a scenario approach and design four possible paths of transport. These future developments are presented here by sketching four global contrast images based on outcomes of earlier research. The outcomes for the transport sector, expressed in transported volumes for both passenger transport and freight transport, are first qualitatively described based on expected developments of several indicators. Next, based on those descriptions, quantitative numbers of transported volumes are calculated with the time horizon being 2020. It appears that all scenarios foresee a growth in transport volumes (for both passenger- and freight transport) world-wide. The achievement of sustainable mobility based on the outcomes presented in this paper may seem dificult and will be confronted with several hurdles. But policy changes and (unexpected) technology developments offer possibilities to realise this objective. Policy makers are thus faced with formidable policy challenges to achieve the Kyoto objectives in the next 20 years.