Disentangle the Global Economic Impact of Epidemic and the Effectiveness of the Specific Disease Control

The observed data could be the joint outcomes due to several events. We propose a combined time series modeling and panel data program evaluation approach to separate the impacts of different events or interventions. As an illustration, we analyze the outcomes of the COVID-19 in Hubei, China in December 2019. We estimate the net impact of COVID-19 without the “lockdown” policy and the net impact of the strictest “lockdown” policy under the pandemic and its aftermath. We show that although the strictest “lockdown” policy quickly contained the spread of COVID-19, it also inflicted huge economic loss on Hubei economy. It lowered Hubei GDP by about 37% compared to the level had there been no “lockdown” under the pandemic. However, even though Hubei economy recovered from the “lockdown”, it could not escape the global impact of pandemic. Its economy is still about 90% of the level had there been no pandemic