Dissipative structures, systems dynamics, and oil exploration

The theory of dissipative structures has been used for some years, mainly by Allen, for the understanding and the study of socioeconomic systems. The model presented in this paper is an application of these ideas in a technical and economic field, as it is based on these methods combined with a systems dynamics analysis, on an oil exploration system.Its purpose is to measure under many conditions, how the random factors, which are inherent to oil exploration, may have an influence on the final amount of oil discovered in a given area. To do this, the area is divided into several geographical or geological zones. A budget strategy, based on the notion of relative attractiveness, is considered. This attractiveness is computed from past results and from the geologist's anticipations. With these decisions as a starting point, the model simulates the drilling of some wells whose success depends on the knowledge gained about the basin and on a random factor representing fluctuations in this knowledge.In a tight-looped system such as this one, bifurcational behaviours may happen, caused by the combination of several fortunate or unfortunate random variables. To abandon one area could be such a bifurcation. The model brings out a decisional strategy which prevents such accidents. It can be easily applied to any specific oil basin.