DISTRIBUTED LAGS AND THE MODELS OF THE COMPLEX SYSTEMS OF FLOWS

Aim of the research is an analysis of the mechanism of transmission of the disturbances caused by the supply or price shocks in such economic systems as the supply chains, linked markets, etc. The interest of the study is focused on the propagation of shocks in the complex systems with distinguished fisical as well as money flows. Main analitical tool used in the analysis is the distributed lag model. Properties of this model are analised applying the concepts of the generating function and polinomial lag operator. Measurment of the lag and its sensitivity to the dynamics of the independent variable of the distributed lag model is also analised. Determination of the lag structure, long-term multiplier, mean and the variance of the lag distribution of the complex model composed of the component distributed lag models. Analysis of the impact of dynamics of the independent variable on the lagging mechanism.