Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?

Application of the Bernhardt, Campello and Kutsoati (2006) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.

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Year of publication:	2014-09
Authors:	Clements, Michael P.
Institutions:	Henley Business School, University of Reading
Subject:	Macro-forecasting \| imitative behaviour \| histogram forecasts \| point predictions

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Number icma-dp2014-10
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938961