Does R & D create or resolve uncertainty?

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate two related questions on business research and development (R & D) simultaneously. First, does R & D create or resolve uncertainty? Second, does uncertainty encourage or discourage business R & D? Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses the three-stage least squares regression method and a system of simultaneous equations to examine the two research questions simultaneously. Instrumental variables overcome the econometric endogeneity problem. Findings – The results are consistent with the hypothesis that R & D creates rather than resolves uncertainty. Why then do risk-averse business managers undertake R & D? This paper argues that in creating uncertainty, R & D also creates “shadow options” for supplementary business investment not envisaged by business managers in the original objective for R & D. Rather, managers unexpectedly uncover shadow options in R & D’s inherent knowledge discovery process, which encourages business R & D in the first instance. Consistent with this real options interpretation, this paper reports evidence that volatility encourages R & D. Originality/value – This paper differs from the current literature in the sense that it investigates the two related R & D questions simultaneously rather than individually. The authors argue that the two related questions are inextricably interrelated, and investigating the two questions simultaneously would provide results that can possibly solve conflicting empirical results in the current literature. The results are also particularly useful for business managers who make decisions on whether to undertake R & D projects or not.