Does the Length of the Current Expansion Increase the Probability of Recession?

This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle durations has changed over time, and whether the lenght of one phase helps to predict the length of the next.

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Year of publication:	1996
Authors:	Backa, L
Institutions:	Finance Canada, Government of Canada
Subject:	BUSINESS CYCLES \| CANADA

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Series:	Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	41 pages
Classification:	E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086102