Does the yield curve signal recession?

Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.

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Year of publication:	2006
Authors:	Haubrich, Joseph G.
Published in:	Economic Commentary. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. - 2006, Apr, 2
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Subject:	Recessions \| Economic forecasting \| Interest rates

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

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