DOLS Cointegration Vector Estimation of the Effect of Inflation and Financial Deepening on Output Growth in Nigeria

This study aimed at empirically exploring the triangle of relationships – finance-inflation-growth – with the broader data sets (1970 - 2012) to see whether a direct effect of inflation on growth can be identified as well as an indirect effect through financial sector development. It also seeks to explore the relative strength of the variables in affecting economic growth using the variance decompositions (VDCs) and the impulse-response functions (IRFs) based on the structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework. We found that both Engel - Granger and Johansen cointegration test suggest that the variables are cointegrated. Based on the existence of cointegration relationship among the variables, we therefore estimate the long-run relationships using the Stock-Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. The results of DOLS model give an indication that inflation effect on growth is independent of financial development while the financial development effect on growth is dependent of inflation. Furthermore, we also found no evidence of short run causality between RGDP and INF; and there is existence of short run interaction between RGDP and FD that is a bi-directional causality between the variables. Variance decompositions (VDCs) results revealed the variations in the economic growth in Nigeria respond more to shocks in trade openness and next government spending, however, the variations in the economic growth rely more on its own innovations. The policy implication of this finding is for policy makers to develop strategy that will holistic reforms in the financial system and enhance stock market development along side with banking financial institutions. Finally, since financial development effect on growth is dependent of inflation, policy that will ensure price stability will promote output further.