Drought in the Amazon and the La Plata Basins : December 2024 : GDO analytical report

Severe droughts are currently affecting most of the Amazon and the La Plata basins and other regions in South America with extremely dry and warm conditions. - Heatwaves and warm spells are exacerbating the impacts of the lack of precipitation. The average temperature is abnormally higher than usual. - Soil moisture and vegetation conditions are severely affected, with negative anomalies over almost the whole South America. - Many rivers in major basins, including the Amazon and the La Plata, have registered very low discharge in 2023-2024. - While ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) returned to neutral conditions in the middle of 2024, the tropical North Atlantic has been in an exceptionally warm state. This may have contributed to the dry conditions and above-average temperatures in most of the region. - Water resources have been severely reduced in most of South America with severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. - Wildfire danger is high in north-eastern Brazil, coastal regions of Peru, central and northern Chile, and central Argentina. - Seasonal forecasts point to warmer than average conditions in the coming months. Precipitation forecasts for December 2024 to February 2025 are characterised by higher uncertainty and variability, particularly for central South America. Close monitoring of the drought evolution and proper water use plans are needed.