Dynamic Relationships Between Farm Real Estate Values and Federal Farm Program Payments

This study examines the dynamic relationships among farm real estate values, farm returns, farm program payments, and real interest rates in an income capitalization model. Endogeneity is assumed among the variables in a dynamic framework because the direction of causality is unclear from a theoretical standpoint. The analysis encompasses the period beginning with the introduction of the first farm bill in 1933 and ending in 2006. Results indicate farm program payments have positive direct impacts in the short run and positive indirect impacts (via farm returns) in the long run on farm real estate values.