Dynamics of Employment- and Earnings-Assimilation of First-Generation Immigrant Men in Sweden, 1990-2000

The employment- and earnings-assimilation of first-generation immigrant men in Sweden was estimated using a dynamic random-e¤ects sample-selection model with eleven waves of unbalanced panel-data during 1990-2000. Endogenous initial values were controlled for using the simple Wooldridge method. Local market unemployment-rates were used as a proxy in order to control for the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions. Significant structural (true) state-dependence was found both on the employment-probabilities and on the earnings of both immigrants and native Swedes. The size of structural state-dependence differed between immigrants and Swedes. Failure to control for the structural state-dependence could have caused bias not only in the assimilation measures but also in the cohort-effects. For example, standard (classic) assimilation model seriously overestimates short-run marginal assimilation-rates and underestimates long-run marginal assimilation- rates. The model controlling for structural state-dependence shows that the earnings of all immigrants in Sweden (except Iraqies) eventually converge to those of native Swedes, but only Nordics and Westerners are able to reach the employment- probability of native Swedes.<p>