Economic Forecast of the Wealthiest Gulf Countries Using ARIMA Model

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are considered one of the fastest growing economies. This paper aims to empirically forecast the economic activity of the biggest GCC countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model of the Gross Domestic Product in the three countries is obtained using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the 1980-2020 period. The appropriate models for the three economies are of ARIMA (0,2,1), the forecasts are at a 95% confidence level and predicts a growth in the three understudy countries for the upcoming five years