Economic growth, urbanization, and transport emissions : an investigation of elasticity-based decoupling metrics in the Gulf

Transport is among the fastest-growing contributors to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, where rapid urbanization, population growth, and high mobility demand continue to shape energy use. This study aims to quantify the extent to which economic growth and urbanization drive transport-related CO2 emissions across Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates between 2012 and 2022. Using sector-specific data from the International Energy Agency and World Bank, we apply panel and country-level log-log regression models to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities of transport CO2 emissions with respect to GDP and urban population. The analysis also includes robustness checks excluding the COVID-19 pandemic year to isolate structural effects from temporary shocks. Results show that transport emissions remain strongly correlated with GDP in most countries, indicating emissions-intensive growth, while the influence of urbanization varies: positive in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, where expansion is car-dependent, and negative in Oman and Qatar, where compact urban forms and transit investments mitigate emissions. The findings highlight the importance of differentiated policy responses-fuel-pricing reform, vehicle efficiency standards, electrification, and transit-oriented planning-to advance low-carbon mobility. By integrating elasticity-based diagnostics with decoupling analysis, this study provides the first harmonized empirical framework for the GCC to assess progress toward transport-sector decarbonization.