Education, Fertility and Incomes in the States of India: Demographic Transition

Original decadal estimates of real output per worker, schooling per worker, mortality risk and total fertility rates for states of India covering 1951 to 2011 are produced. An intergenerational model with precautionary demand for fertility is used to fit the observations of fertility and schooling at the state level. The intergenerational human capital model is shown to explain about 75% of log level differences, 100% of average growth rates and 40\% of the variation of growth rates across the states of India. These are all improvements relative to a standard Mincer human capital model of schooling and experience returns. The data covers the demographic transition of the states of India from high fertility, total fertility rates of 6, to low fertility, total fertility rates of 2.5.