Effects of carbon emission mitigation options under carbon concentration stabilization scenarios

This paper evaluates the effects of carbon emission mitigation options from a long-range perspective using an integrated assessment model called MARIA (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation). This model has been developed to assess the potential contribution of fossil, biomass, nuclear, and other energy technologies and land-use changes to future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions incorporating a simple carbon cycle and climate change model. Two types of policy options play major roles in the GHG mitigation debate; short-term economic instruments and long-term technological options. This paper describes how the model was applied to assess carbon emission stabilization options and strategies based on narrative storylines. The main focus is the long-term assessments of biomass utilization, nuclear power technologies, and carbon sequestration options for stabilizing the atmospheric carbon concentration at 450, 550, and 650ppmv. The results indicate that zero-carbon technologies such as the fast breeder reactor and carbon sequestration technologies can make a significant contribution toward emissions mitigation especially when drastic reductions are envisaged, but the “nuclear phasing out” scenario is still possible. Expansion of biomass appears to be robust. Copyright Springer Japan 2000