Effects of glacier melting on socioeconomic development in the Manas River basin, China

This study used 46 years of recent data, including glacial area, temperature, precipitation, and runoff data, to examine the glacier melting and its possible socioeconomic effects in the Manas River basin in western China. The average yearly change in the glaciated area in the Manas River basin for the entire study period was 0.41 %, and the glacier mass balance mainly keeps negative in the last 46 years. The negative glacial mass balance observed between 1986 and 2006 was 2.8 times greater than that for the period 1960–1985. Additionally, the amount of meltwater runoff was 78 % greater in 1986–2006 than in 1960–1985, with a mean depth of 478 mm year<Superscript>−1</Superscript>.Glacier melting and runoff in the Manas River basin during the late twentieth century were higher than at present. Annual meltwater volumes can reach 1 × 10<Superscript>8</Superscript> m<Superscript>3</Superscript>, providing beneficial water resources to downstream areas. However, as the climate becomes warmer, the risk of meltwater flooding will also increase. Our calculations indicate that after the 2030s, the level of flooding risk will increase substantially. Copyright The Author(s) 2013