Ein quantitatives Szenario des Übergangs vom bestehenden System der Alterssicherung auf ein System der Grundsicherung für alle

This paper is concerned with establishing the data base that is necessary to analyse the "double burden" argument which has been used to reject a sweeping reform of the German old-age pension system. We show that this argument does not hold if the existing pay-as-you-go system were to be replaced with a system of tax-funded flat-rate payments for the old.<p> We provide some 80 tables containing estimates of claims on the public-pension system in the year 2000 (the postulated year of transition) and projections of claims on a future system of flat-rate old-age payments.