Electoral fiscal policy in new, old, and fragile democracies

We review research on political budget cycles across countries, including recent findings that they are a phenomenon of new democracies and are statistically insignificant in old, established democracies. We then consider what may account for this and review several hypotheses. Recent empirical work also finds that voters in new democracies do not reward election-year deficit spending, raising questions about explanations focusing on the use of election-year deficits to gain votes. This suggests that the increase in election-year expenditures and deficits in new democracies may reflect other motives. Specifically, it is suggested that they may reflect attempts to shore up a fragile democracy. (Comparative Economic Studies / SWP)