Emerging technology assessment : Modeling effective integration of the internet and the mobile phones in China

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess effective integration of two emerging technologies, new emerging opportunities for them and their diffusion in China. Design/methodology/approach – A multi‐perspective analysis and causal models were developed to assess the emerging technologies as a result of the integration. In addition, an initial system dynamics model is developed to explore their diffusion. Findings – Based on multi‐perspective analysis and causal models in both global and national environments, problems such as security and reliability are identified. System dynamics modeling is used in this paper to assist such foresight process. Different scenarios are proposed by the modeling to offer possible solutions facilitating the development of voice and video over wireless area network (VVoWLAN) in China. Research limitations/implications – While, the purpose of system dynamics modeling is to demonstrate the application of the methodology, simplifying assumptions are made. To deliver an accurate foresight model, additional data and modeling details will be required. This will lead to future works as an improvement of the model. Practical implications – A multi‐perspective analysis and causal models were developed to assess the emerging technologies as a result of the integration. These models can easily be used by decision makers evaluating such technologies. The framework suggests that the diffusion of such emerging technologies like VVoWLAN needs to be planned strategically in order to fully realize the value of the integration opportunities identified in the first step. Originality/value – The paper provides a framework for assessing emerging technologies in China.