Emerging versus Developed Volatility Indexes : The Comparison of VIW20 and VIX Index

Modeling of financial markets volatility is one of the most significant issues of contemporary finance, especially while analyzing high-frequency data. Accurate quantification and forecast of volatility are of immense importance in risk management (VaR models, stress testing and worst case scenario), models of capital market and options valuation techniques. What we show in this paper is the methodology for calculating volatility index for Polish capital market (VIW20 - index anticipating expected volatility of WIG20 Index). The methods presented are based on VIX Index (VIX White Paper, 2003) and enriched with necessary modifications corresponding with the character of Polish options market. Quoted on CBOE, VIX Index is currently known as the best measure of capital investment risk perfectly illustrating the level of fear and emotions of market participants. The conception of volatility index is based on combination of realized volatility and implied volatility which, using methodology of Derman et al. (1999) and reconstructing volatility surface, reflects both volatility smile as well as its term structure. The research is carried out using high-frequency data (i.e. tick data) for index options on WIG20 Index for the period November 2003 - May 2007, in other words, starting with the introduction of options by Warsaw Stock Exchange. All additional simulations are carried out using data comprising 1998-2008. Having analyzed in detail VIW20 Index, we observed its characteristic behavior during the periods of strong market turmoils. What we also present is the analysis of the influence of VIW20 and VIX index-based instruments both on construction of minimum risk portfolio and the quality of derivatives portfolio management where volatility risk and liquidity risk play a key role. The main objective of this paper is to provide foundations for introducing appropriate volatility indices and volatility-based derivatives. All that paying attention to crucial methodology changes, necessary if one considers strong markets inefficiencies in emerging countries. As the introduction of appropriate instruments will enable active management of risks that are unhedgable nowadays it will significantly contribute to the development of the given markets in the course of time. In summary we additionally point to benefits Warsaw Stock Exchange might get, being one of few emerging markets possessing appropriately quantified investment risk as well as derivatives to manage it