Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products- A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars, dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model, according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007. Chow’s breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product. Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product. Rural labor force flow, as an exogenous force, affects the agricultural production, and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products. Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong, then grows gradually weaker, and reaches its peak value at the year 1998. With the development of rural society and economy and the market process, rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product, which has periodic characteristics. In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products, the following countermeasures are put forward: vigorously developing vocational education, increasing the support for agricultural production, and making active employment measures.