Estimating End-Use Demand : A Bayesian Approach

Eliminating negative end-use or appliance consumption estimates and incorporating direct metering information into the process of generating these estimates, these are two important aspects of conditional demand analysis (CDA) that will be the focus of this paper. In both cases a Bayesian approach seems a natural way of proceeding. What needs to be invistigated is whether it is aslo a viable and effective approach. In addition, such a framework naturally lends itself to prediction. Our application involves the estimation of electrical appliance consumptions for a sample of Australian households. This application is designed to illustrate the viability of a full Bayesian analysis of the problem.