ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM CONTRACT EXPIRATION ON CORN AND WHEAT PRICES

The Conservation Reserve Program reduced available cropland in the United States by 34 million acres under the first nine signup periods (1986-1990). Among these are ten million acres with wheat base and four million acres with corn base, which could potentially produce 288 million bushels of wheat and 340 million bushels of corn per year upon contract expiration. The impacts of expiring CRP contacts on the production and prices of wheat and corn in the United States are estimated. Based on past production practices and post-CRP land-use intentions of contract holders, 48.2% of base acres enrolled in CRP will return to production. Under this scenario, wheat prices will decline by more than 7% and corn prices by more than 2% by 2000, unless ARP levels, normal flex acres percent, or target prices are changed.