Estimating the implicit inflation target of the South African reserve bank

Nir Klein

This paper applies a state-space approach to estimate the implicit inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) since the adoption of the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework. The paper's findings are two. First, although the official inflation target range is 3.6 percent, in practice, the SARB seems to have aimed for the upper segment of the band (41.2 .6 percent) for most of the period, despite the substantial variation of the output gap. Second, the estimation results show that the implicit inflation target varied over time, and in recent years it has shifted toward the upper lim

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Klein, Nir
Publisher:	Washington, DC : Internat. Monetary Fund
Subject:	Inflationssteuerung \| Inflation targeting \| Zustandsraummodell \| State space model \| Südafrika \| South Africa

Extent:	Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 15 S., 1,097 KB) graph. Darst.
Series:	IMF working papers. - Washington, DC : IMF, ZDB-ID 2108494-4. - Vol. 12/177 IMF Working Papers
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Inflation Targets in Selected Emerging Markets; II. The Empirical Model; 2. South Africa: Output Gap by Hodric-Presscot Filter; III. Estimation Results under a Constant Natural Real Rate Empirical Model; 3. Inflation and Inflation Expectations; Tables; 1. Estimated Response Function of the SARB; 4. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target; IV. The Sensitivity of the Results to the Pre-determined Parameters; A. A Random Walk or a Stationary Process?; B. A Different (constant) Natural Real Rate; C. Alternative Signal-to-Noise Ratios 2. Estimated Response Function with a Relaxation of the Random Walk Assumption5. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target with Different Levels of Natural Real Rate; V. Time-Varying Natural Real Rate; 3. Estimated Response Function with Different Signal-to-Noise Ratios; 6. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target with Alternative Signal-to-Noise Ratios; 7. The Estimated Time-Varying Natural Interest Rate; 8. The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target with Time-Varying Natural Interest Rate; VI. The Actual versus the Predicted Policy Rate 4. Estimated response function with time-varying natural real rate9. Actual and Predicted Policy Rate; VII. Conclusions; References; Appendix: Table; 1.A Labor Descriptive Statistics, 2001-Q1-2011-Q4; Appendix: Figures; 1.A The Estimated Implicit Inflation Target; 2A. The SARB's Policy Rate Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
ISBN:	978-1-4755-0525-2 ; 978-1-4755-8646-6 ; 978-1-4755-0525-2
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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