Estimating the output gap using business survey data : a bivariate structural time series model for the German economy

by Gebhard Flaig and Claudia Plötscher

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and out-of-sample forecasts exhibit smaller prediction errors.

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Year of publication:	2001
Authors:	Flaig, Gebhard ; Plötscher, Claudia
Published in:	IFO-Studien : Zeitschrift für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung. - München : IFO-Inst. für Wirtschaftsforschung, ISSN 0018-9731, ZDB-ID 2819-8. - Vol. 47.2001, 2, p. 221-232
Subject:	Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung / Abteilung Konjunkturumfragen, Unternehmer- und Verbraucherverhalten \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Kapazitätsauslastung \| Capacity utilization \| Zeitreihenanalyse \| Time series analysis \| Dekompositionsverfahren \| Decomposition method \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Deutschland \| Germany \| 1969-1999

Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Aufsatz in Zeitschrift ; Article in journal
Language:	English
Notes:	Literaturverz. S. 231-232
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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