Estimation and Dynamic Judgment of Urban-rural Coordinated Development: A Case Study of Chongqing City

Using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and GCA (Grey Comprehensive Analysis), this article measures the degree of urban-rural coordinated development of Chongqing City, and establishes GARCH model to analyze its dynamic feature. The results show that urban-rural coordination degree of Chongqing City tended to decline year by year in the period 1985-2010 on the whole; after it became a municipality directly under the Central Government, the average annual rate of decline reached 1.78%. Further, from GARCH modeling analysis, there is no "clustering" in urban-rural coordination degree of Chongqing City, and the impact of fluctuation state in the past on the future will gradually intensify. There is no "leverage effect" in urban-rural coordination degree of Chongqing City, and if the government does not exert "external force", urban-rural coordination degree will decline year by year. But in the long run, urban-rural coordination degree will gradually converge to the equilibrium level. Based on this, we propose to strengthen institutional innovation and help propel coordinated urban and rural development, in terms of employment, social security, finance, land management and use.