Estimation of vulnerability to poverty using a multilevel longitudinal model: Evidence from the Philippines

Using the panel data for the Philippines in 2003-2009, the paper estimates a three-level random coefficient model to measure household vulnerability and to decompose it into idiosyncratic and covariate components. It corrects heterogeneity bias using Bell and Jones's (2015) "within-between" formulation. A majority of the poor and 18 percent of the nonpoor are found to be vulnerable to unobservable shocks, while both groups of households are more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks. Adequate safety nets should be provided for vulnerable households that lack access to infrastructure, or are larger in size with more dependents and less-educated household heads.