EU Enlargement to the East and its Impact on Non-accessing Countries, Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

In March 1998, the EU formally launched accession negotiations with a number of countries. In this process there is a danger that countries of the new EU will switch to the trade inside the Union and non-accessing countries will face isolation, locking at the trade between them and lacking flows of foreign capital and new technologies, which can lead to the further gap in the regional development. Above all it concerns Former Soviet Union countries and in the paper the author investigates this issue. For this purpose the author employs Computable General Equilibrium Model, developed by Global Trade Analysis Project (USA). Database for the model is GTAP 4, in current research it was aggregated into 5 regions and 8 sectors of economy.