European and Euro-meditterranean Agreements: same simulation analysis on the effects of the EU trade policy

This paper deals with the long term effects of several important trade policy initiatives implemented by the EU in the last decade: the European Agreements, the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements and the Customs Union with Turkey. The analytical tool is GTAP, a static and perfectly competitive CGE model whose database has been aggregated into 10 regions and 10 industries. On average, liberalisation of manufacturing industries turns out to be welfare creating for the subscribers and slightly damaging for the world economy; the eventual opening of agricultural markets by the EU would improve these results. Income distribution inside the involved areas is only weakly affected by integration; with regard to the EU, return to capital and wages – for both skilled and unskilled labour - tend to appreciate in real terms.