European business cycle indicators : 3rd quarter 2018

Special topic: Using fat survey data to nowcast euro area GDP growth. After losses in 2018-Q1 and a broad sideways movement in Q2, the euro-area (EA) and EU Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) posted moderate decreases of 0.9 (EU) and 1.4 (EA) points in the third quarter. In both cases, the losses were concentrated in the last (EU) / last two (EA) months of the quarter. At 111.3 (EU) and 110.9 (EA) points, both indicators remain nevertheless at historically elevated levels. EU- and EA-confidence decreased among industry managers and consumers, while confidence in retail trade and construction brightened, especially in the EA. Confidence in services remained broadly unchanged in both regions. Among the seven largest EU economies, 2018-Q3 brought significant losses in economic sentiment in Spain (-3.9) and France (-3.3), as well as more contained ones in Poland (-2.2) and Italy (-1.6). Sentiment in Germany (+0.6) and the Netherlands (-0.4) changed only little. The UK defied the trend, gaining 1.5 points on the quarter. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing decreased in both the EA and the EU by 0.2 percentage points (pp) compared to the last survey wave in April. Currently, capacity utilisation is at 84.1% (EA) and 83.8% (EU), i.e. markedly above the two regions' respective long-term averages of around 81%. Capacity utilisation in services saw a 0.4pp-increase in the EA and a 0.3pp-decrease in the EU. The current rates of 90.6% (EA) and 89.7% (EU) correspond to levels well above the series' long-term averages of around 88.7%.