European Centre of Expertise (ECE) in the field of labour law, employment and labour market policy : labour market policy thematic review 2018 : an in-depth analysis of the emigration of skilled labour, Czech Republic

Demographic trends: low fertility rates and population aging. One of the most significant demographic trends currently in the Czech Republic is population aging, caused by a very low fertility rate since the 1990s, and a positive trend of rising life expectancy. Although fertility has risen in recent decades, from 1.15 in year 2000 (one of the lowest in the world) to 1.57 children per woman in 2015 (almost at the EU-28 average of 1.58), it is still far from 2.1 children per women, considered the replacement level in developed countries (EUROSTAT, 2017). The Czech population would, therefore, be shrinking in the current decades if not for net immigration to the country. The demographic projection of the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO) predicts a significant decline in the productive component of the population by 2020, with subsequent stagnation in the 2020s followed by a further steep decline. According to the prediction, people aged over 65 are expected to account for 32 % of the population by 2050 (35 % of all women and 30 % of all men), whereas in 2015 this age group only made up 18 % of the population (CZSO, 2016). The World Bank predicts an increase in the age group of people over 65 in the Czech Republic to 3.01 million in 2050 (World Bank, 2017). The acceleration of population aging trends will arrive after 2035, when the strong cohorts born in the 1970s will gradually retire. These developments will pose a significant burden on public finances. Labour market situation has improved significantly following the economic crisis. The unemployment rate has fallen continuously since 2009, reaching an average of 3.5 % in Q1 2017, historically the lowest measured unemployment rate. At the same time, the employment rate has risen steadily reaching 72.8 %. In international comparison, the overall unemployment rate in the CR in 2016 of 4 % was the lowest among the EU countries and a way below the average of EU28 at 8.5 %.