European integration and monetary transmission mechanisms: the case of Italy

The focus in this paper is on the monetary transmission mechanism in Italy and how it has changed with the increased independence of the Italian Central Bank and the increasingly fixed exchange rates of the ERM. The sample period 1974-1994 is divided into two parts approximately corresponding to the different systems. Based on a VAR model for money, income, prices, and interest rates the cointegration properties of the data in nominal and real terms are analysed. Long-run price homogeneity is empirically rejected and the economic and econometric consequences for a real money analysis are described. Altogether we find little evidence that the use of M2 and the short interest rate as intermediate targets has effectively controlled price inflation in this period. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.