Evaluating and Improving Resource Allocation for Navy Recruiting

The recruitment of enlisted men and officers under the All-Volunteer Force concept costs approximately $620 million per year; of this amount approximately $100 million are in advertising expenditures. However, recently Congress and the General Accounting Office have expressed considerable concern over the lack of justification for such expenditures. The issue is further complicated by the recent recruiting shortfalls by all the services and the debate surrounding registration and a possible return to the draft. Finally, results of most profit-oriented sales research are difficult to apply to improving military recruiting efficiency due to the difference in the levels of rapport and credibility necessary to convince a potential recruit to invest several years of his life. This paper reports on modeling and implementation experience geared towards determining the proper allocation of resources between advertising and recruiters. This mix is especially crucial since Congress does not permit funds appropriated for advertising to be used for manpower or vice versa. The study consists of two parts: generation of response functions to estimate the number and mix of enlistments over time and geographically as a function of the various demographics, advertising expenditures and the number of recruiters; a nonlinear programming resource allocation model to improve the budget generation and budget execution capabilities in meeting and assessing the impact of the various multi-faceted quantity and quality goals. The basic model, with updating of the response function parameters, is being used by the Navy to aid in the generation and defense of its annual budget appropriations. Numerical results are given which are compared to the past allocations of the Navy and to results observed in industrial product marketing.