Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts.

A Test of forecasts rationality based on the weak efficiency of fixed-event forecasts has recently been proposed by Nordhauss (1987). This paper considers the scope for pooling fixed-event forecasts across 'events' to deliver more powerful tests of the weak-efficiency hypothesis. In an empirial illustration we demonstrate the usefulness of this approach when only a small number of forecasts are available.

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Year of publication:	1996
Authors:	Clements, M.C.
Institutions:	Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Subject:	FORECASTS \| POOLING \| TESTS

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Series:	The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS).
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	15 pages
Classification:	C52 - Model Evaluation and Testing ; C59 - Econometric Modeling. Other ; C50 - Econometric Modeling. General
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005146870