Evaluation of approaches to control of Maedi-Visna disease of sheep using a Markov chain simulation model for a range of typical British Flocks

An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of Maedi-Visna virus in typical British flocks. On closed hill farms, low probability of effective contact was most critical for control. In open low ground flocks, purchasing accredited replacements eliminated disease spread, otherwise flock size was the most important factor governing flock prevalence. Results highlighted the need for more epidemiological information about Maedi-Visna, particularly whether hill farms act as a hidden reservoir of virus or reduce the impact of this disease on the industry by providing a source of clean replacements