Evaluation of the Crude Oil Policy Model (COPM) and recommended modifications

This is an evaluation of the Crude Oil Policy Model (COPM) and the assumptions driving the estimates of future crude oil production and abandonments attributable to an accelerated federal oil R&D program which were cited in the National Energy Strategy. This evaluation focuses on the logic and inputs to the model itself, and their impact on the NES estimates. A plan for making the recommended enhancements is also discussed. A parallel effort is also now in progress to make a number of model enhancements that will facilitate the analysis of RCRA impacts. This effort is scheduled to be completed for the Office of Planning and Environment in mid-August. A description of these enhancements is also included in our plan for correcting and enhancing the COPM.