Evolution of structural indicators: China and its regions 1981-2010

Purpose – This paper deals with some structural indicators and their evolution, in China and its regions, over the period 1981-2010. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a quantitative approach. Linear programming and structural growth decompositions were used. The authors first produce estimates of the optimal productivities of incremental capital and the optimal incremental income elasticity of capital by means of a linear programming exercise. They then produce an accounting growth decomposition to assess the changes in the contribution of capital productivity, capital intensity and labour participation to the growth rate of output per capita. Finally, they combine an accounting growth decomposition with a standard production function, growth accounting, decomposition to assess the contribution of both capital productivity and capital intensity to total factor productivity (TFP). They also show in the Appendix the difference in the TFP growth contribution when marginal elasticities are assumed variable over time and when scale returns are assumed to be increasing rather than constant. Findings – The main conclusion of the paper is that capital intensity, rather than capital productivity or labour participation, has been the main growth contributor. Capital productivity has fallen, while capital intensity has increased significantly, but that does not mean that quantity in itself, rather than quality, is behind such growth, as total factor productivity, which is significantly more than engineering technical change, has been relatively important over the period. Originality/value – Both the use of linear programming to assess the evolution of incremental capital productivity and the decomposition of TFP.