Evolutionary models of urban systems: an application to the Belgian provinces

An application to the Belgian provinces of the EMUS (evolutionary models of urban systems) models is described. The theoretical basis of the approach is presented, as well as the description of the equations. The model was successfully calibrated with socio-economic data for Belgium, 1970 - 84. A simple scenario is used to make a preliminary exploration of the future evolution of Belgium, but this will be dealt with much more fully elsewhere. The main object of this approach is to develop a learning tool for the socioeconomic system, which will suggest what is 'normal' and what is not, and hence what further refinements or changes are required.