Exact Moments for Autor1egressive and Random walk Models for a Zero or Stationary Initial Value
For a first-order autoregressive AR(1) model with zero initial value, x<sub>i</sub> = ax<sub>i−1</sub>,_, + e<sub>i</sub>, we provide the bias, mean squared error, skewness, and kurtosis of the maximum likelihood estimator â. Brownian motion approximations by Phillips (1977, Econometrica 45, 463–485; 1978, Biometrika 65, 91–98; 1987, Econometrica 55, 277–301), Phillips and Perron (1988, Biometrika 75, 335–346), and Perron (1991, Econometric Theory 7, 236–252; 1991, Econometrica 59, 211–236), among others, yield an elegant unified theory but do not yield convenient formulas for calibration of skewness and kurtosis. In addition to the usual stationary case |α| < 1, we include the unstable |α| = 1 case of the random walk model. For the |α| < 1 case, we give new exact results for White's (1961, Biometrika 48, 85–94) model B, where the initial value x0 is a normal random variable N(0,σ2/(l – α<sup>2</sup>)). Our expressions are exact for small samples computed by relatively reliable Gaussian quadrature methods, rather than approximate ones in powers of n<sup>−l</sup> or α<sup>2</sup>.
Year of publication: |
1996
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Authors: | Vinod, H.D. ; Shenton, L.R. |
Published in: |
Econometric Theory. - Cambridge University Press. - Vol. 12.1996, 03, p. 481-499
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Publisher: |
Cambridge University Press |
Description of contents: | Abstract [journals.cambridge.org] |
Saved in:
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