Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play‐Hysteresis in German Exports - Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations

A non‐linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call ‘play’ area - analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path‐dependent play‐hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. Looking at some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradeable sectors we find significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports