Exchange Rate Pass-Through Evolution in Brazil : A State Space Approach

In this paper we propose a Gaussian state space model to estimate the exchange rate pass-through of the Brazilian Real against the American Dollar with a estimation procedure adapted to deal with endogeneity. The model formulation is suitable to accomplish the stylized fact that the exchange rate pass-through is varying over time in Brazil. We also impose and test restrictions over the time varying coefficients to decide whether the producer currency pricing (PCP) or the local currency pricing (LCP) hypothesis are acceptable for some Brazilian Wholesale Price Index, General Origin, IPA-OG. Our preliminary results suggest that both hypothesis are not supported by the data. Moreover, we still observe the aggregation of index prices effect over the estimates, since we estimate the model for 3 different levels of the Brazilian IPA-OG aggregation